Example: Russia is nearly a catastrophe. The population is not replacing itself; suicide and alcoholism are rampant among men, and oil-based economy is in collapse.
Simultaneously China is starting to suffer some pretty bad economic problems itself. It is looking at all those resources in Siberia, which is part of Russia.
If we pulled our military out of the area -and Russia does not want us to do it - what would China do regarding Siberia? Try to take it over? Of course. Right now they are creeping in slowly like a turtle.
Realpolitik tells us we can't pull out military forces out of the area. On the other hand, I don't give a damn if Russia and China wipe each other off of the face of the Earth, so we should bring the American Empire home before it is forced home.
We're going to keep our forces over there. And that is why I hate Realpolitik and have for many, many years.
4 comments:
Russia actually had a small amount of native population growth at least in 2014 and if the stats are to be believed the life expectancy, though lower than the West is actually at an all time high.
Otherwise your points are basically correct
However getting out this trap requires a rotation of the elites and basically eliminating every agency, institutions and so on with a global bent from power. That is not easy
This would not be easy and it compounded by the insane habit of provoking a power whose newer weapons systems may well be stealthy, faster, cheaper and more powerful than anything we have ever seen. we keep poking the bear with a stick and we'll regret it,
Sane people would walk away but sane people would also know when they are hooked on smack, well power and money which is worse and would get rehab as well.
What you say about Russia was true 20 years ago, but they have turned things around completely. We'd do well over here to copy some of their policies. As for China, their economic slowdown is far less serious than the US media portrays it.
Realistically, both countries are far more likely to take out the US. A Realpolitik solution would be for us to get out of their way and rebuild ourselves to Superpower status again.
Realpolitik doesn't tell us we can't ignore Russia/China. It simply points out possible consequences. It's up to us to decide what we want to do as always.
Dmitry Prokofyev, a St. Petersburg economist, says that barring an unexpected shock, Russia faces declines of its GDP of 1.0 - 1.5 percent a year for the foreseeable future, a trend that will exacerbate differences between life in the megalopolises which may improve somewhat and life elsewhere which will deteriorate.
In an interview to the “Svobodnaya pressa” portal, Prokofyev says that “the most probable prognosis for the coming years is a deepening of the structural recession of the present. With each year, things will become a little worse, and even a rise in oil prices will not guarantee economic growth”
(svpressa.ru/society/article/148523/).
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Handle breaks on Russian weapons upgrade
Even Mark Adomanis admits that the vaunted Russian demographic recovery has peaked and reversed. Most of the "recovery" was due to muslim immigration, which has reversed in an economic contraction. Ethnic Russia itself has been in trouble for decades now, and getting worse with Putin's shenanigans.
Estimates are that Russia will lose between 30% and 50% of its ethnic Russian population between now and 2050. I suspect more rather than less.
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