tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8497093028548856666.post5028234815616606973..comments2024-03-22T11:14:05.861-04:00Comments on UncleBob's Treehouse: What I Would Tell Me If I Was 12Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16046202647270439670noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8497093028548856666.post-64732345316059386402013-08-18T14:22:06.850-04:002013-08-18T14:22:06.850-04:00About Regression Towards the Mean: this is absolut...About Regression Towards the Mean: this is absolutely true, but it's important to understand *why* it's true. Essentially, it is a statistical artifact.<br /><br />Most measurable occurrences are a combination of skill and luck: in the year an athlete beats all the records, he was having a great year; no marital problems, no random illnesses, no car problems putting him off, et cetera. While a huge portion of the accomplishment was due to his superior skill, chances are that next year - when a bit of bad luck does go his way - he won't perform as well.<br /><br />Similarly, to look at heights (I believe this is where the effect was first observed) the tallest man in a generation has both good genes, and the good nutrition. His own children will inherit his genes, but in all likelihood they won't be the best-fed of their generation.<br /><br />It's not some mystical force - the exception is partly there because of innate skill/talent/genetics - but past performance is partly luck, too.Aurinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11326304664495981809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8497093028548856666.post-63520042063089987962013-08-15T21:01:39.166-04:002013-08-15T21:01:39.166-04:00Great stuff, as usual.Great stuff, as usual.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com